Fall COVID Spike Might Be Replica of 1918 Influenza "W" Curve

The 1918 Influenza pandemic contained interesting properties which, to this day, still somewhat baffle the medical community. Most influenzas have a "U" shaped curve for mortality rates. However, the 1918 second wave in September contained a rather unusual "W" shape. In addition to affecting the very young and very old, the second wave of the 1918 flu pandemic also severely affected people between 25 and 35 years of age. One interesting theory for this phenomenon is that people over 35 years of age at the time had been exposed to a similar flu virus prior to 1889, granting them better immunity to the 1918 flu. Read more of this interesting analysis in the NIH article from 2006: 1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics

Disclaimer: This is an analysis of current COVID data from a data perspective only. I am not a doctor. This is not medical or legal advice. Consult your physician for concerns regarding COVID.

Image from NIH

It's no secret that as someone who processes large cyber security data sets, I've got a fascination with numbers and patterns. So it was quite interesting when I saw a pattern emerging in the latest COVID data numbers regarding mortality.

All of the following data comes from the CDC.

First, let's take a look at COVID deaths by age group in January 2021.

As you can see in the chart above, there were 15,756 COVID deaths in January for 50-64, and 23,964 COVID deaths for age 65-74.

February maintains this balance, with more deaths in the 65-74 age range than in the 50-64 age range. However, what's interesting is that 75-84 deaths now outnumber 85+.

Starting in April, the gap started narrowing. With less than 200 deaths difference between 50-64 and 65-74, I originally thought this was an anomaly or fluke. But look at how both are now exceeding 85+ death counts, by almost 1,000.

May's data started to concern me. This is the first time, from the entire pandemic, that the most deaths have been for people ages 50-64. Now it's important to note that this doesn't take into "per 1000" death rates. However, the number spiking like this is concerning.

June widens the gap even further, with over 100 more deaths in the 50-64 age group than the 65-74 age group.

Finally, here are the numbers for July, which show several disturbing trends.

1) COVID deaths are up across the board between June and July

2) The highest number of deaths are for people age 50-64 years

3) The gap between 50-64 and 65-74 is widening, with many more 50-64 year olds dying from COVID.

Now as I said, these numbers are raw data don't include actual infection vs death counts to calculate the deaths per 1,000. However, these numbers are eerily reminiscent of the "W" curve displayed by the second wave of the 1918 flu pandemic.

Since I am not a doctor, I can't provide medical advice. With that said, I would encourage you and your family to take the appropriate precautions you feel are best, based upon this new information. Discuss with your doctor, and your family, your options for keeping yourself healthy during these interesting times.

Most importantly, stay safe.

This article is not intended as medical advice, and is for informational and educational use only. This article does not reflect the views of my employer or clients. Ken is a Cyber Security professional who processes large cyber security data sets as part of his job.